Oscar Picks for 2003
by Tim Wick

Ah! The Oscars are in the air! Will this year have me hurling foam objects at my Television as I did last year when the decidedly mediocre A Beautiful Mind defeated the far superior Moulin Rouge and Fellowship of the Ring? Will there be at least one award category that I can shamelessly claim they actually got right? Does any of this matter?

Nah, it doesn't matter. But where would the fun be in watching if I didn't stick my neck out and make a few predictions?

Remember, Oscars are all about politics and advertising. Who was the best often has no real bearing on the outcome.

Best Picture

• Chicago
• Gangs of New York
• The Hours
• Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
• The Pianist

And the Oscar goes to:

Chicago. Has to be. The film has a Golden Globe, BAFTA, Directors Guild and Actors guild prize. The voters are on the side of this movie and why shouldn't they be? The film is a spectacular adaptation and more importantly it is just a ball to watch. The only potential spoiler is The Hours but with all that metal in Chicago's corner, there really isn't much value in speculating on their chances.

Who did the Academy Miss?

To me, it is a sin that The Hours is getting all the recognition while the superior Far From Heaven goes comparatively unnoticed. I also think that Christopher Nolan's freshman effort with Insomnia belongs on this list more than Martin Scorsese's ambitious but ultimately uneven Gangs of New York.

Best Director

• Rob Marshall for Chicago
• Martin Scorsese for Gangs of New York
• Stephen Daldry for The Hours
• Roman Polanski for The Pianist
• Pedro Almodovar for Talk to Her

And the Oscar goes to:

This is a toss up. A month ago, I would have said Martin Scorsese. He is considered by many to be the greatest modern American director and he has never won an Oscar. However, Chicago has been piling up awards faster than they can give them out and that includes the Directors Guild prize for Rob Marshall (another prize Scorsese has never won). So is this the year the Academy gives Scorsese a long overdue Oscar that would pretty much be a lifetime achievement award? I don't think so. I think that the momentum of Chicago will sent a statue Rob Marshall's way.

Who did the Academy Miss?

Steven Spielberg already has two Oscars and the films he directed this year were decidedly not Academy fare. Minority Report is a brilliant film and Catch Me if you Can is fantastically entertaining. Both should have earned a nomination. But the omission of Peter Jackson for The Two Towers is worse. If Jackson doesn't get nominated AND win next year, I will lose what little respect for the Oscars that I have left.

Best Actress in a Leading role

• Salma Hayek for Frida
• Nicole Kidman for The Hours
• Diane Lane for Unfaithful
• Julianne Moore for Far From Heaven
• Renee Zellweger for Chicago

And the Oscar goes to:

Another tough call. Kidman seemed to really have a lock on this one but Zellweger snagged the Screen Actors Guild prize. Still, after Kidman's double helping of brilliance last year, I think this is the year where the Academy makes good. Call it Kidman. Julianne Moore beats both of them for her powerful performance in Far From Heaven but since I have a very limited influence over the voting block, I'm betting my opinion won't matter much.

Who did the Academy Miss?

Admittedly, I've not seen Hayek in Frida but I think that up and coming actress Kirsten Dunst was really terrific in The Cat's Meow, a movie few people saw last year. I also think that Agela Bettis was creepy terrific in May but given it's nearly nonexistent release, it is no shock she was overlooked.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

• Adrien Brody for The Pianist
• Nicholas Cage for Adaptation
• Michael Caine for The Quiet Americank
• Daniel Day Lewis for Gangs of New York
• Jack Nicholson for About Schmidt

And the Oscar goes to:

I have to go with Jack. Not only is About Schmidt one of the first films he's actually acted in, the Academy just completely loves him. Brody is the only actor on this list who doesn't have an Oscar but The Pianist, while terrific, probably won't net anything. Daniel Day Lewis did get the Screen Actors Guild award but I have a hunch that Jack will be at the podium once more.

Who did the Academy Miss?

This is a fantastic list, make no mistake. Every performance on the list is worthy of a nomination. Richard Gere was the biggest miss here. He really managed to put in the performance of a lifetime in Chicago and it's a pity that the film's momentum didn't carry him with it. Also lost in a list of great performances were Robin Williams remarkable performance in One Hour Photo and Al Pacino's most nuanced performance to date in Insomnia.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

• Kathy Bates for About Schmidt
• Julianne Moore for The Hours
• Queen Latifah for Chicago
• Meryl Streep for Adaptation
• Catherine Zeta-Jones for Chicago

And the Oscar Goes to:

Streep. She has just about every other award that counts in this category except the Screen Actors Guild award. Zeta-Jones picked that one up because Streep wasn't nominated. Doesn't matter. Streep is the female equivalent of Jack Nicholson. She's in a film, she gets nominated. Fact is she was actually very good in that film so that means she'll probably win.

Who did the Academy miss?

I totally adored Emily Watson in Punch Drunk Love. Likewise Samantha Morton in Minority Report.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

• Chris Cooper for Adaptation
• Ed Harris for The Hours
• Paul Newman for Road to Perdition
• John C. Reily for Chicago
• Christopher Walken for Catch Me if you Can

And the Oscar goes to:

Chris Cooper has picked up every award in this category. I can't imagine his streak breaking at this point.

Who did the Academy miss?

Dennis Quaid was haunting as the executive with a shameful secret in Far From Heaven. Dennis Haysbert was also great in the same film.

Best Animated Feature Film

• Ice Age
• Lilo & Stitch
• Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron
• Spirited Away
• Treasure Planet

And the Oscar Goes to:

I'm going with my emotions on this one and picking Spirited Away. Miyazaki is known the world over as a master of his craft and Spirited Away is likely to be his last film. It is also the best film on this list and one of the best films released last year in any medium. I have to believe that the Academy would not be dumb enough to select any other film.

Note: I loved Ice Age and Lilo & Stitch but neither is in the same league as Spirited Away.

Who Did the Academy Miss?

No-one. In fact Treasure Planet and Spirit don't really belong on this list.

Best Screenplay written Directly for the Screen

• Far From Heaven
• Gangs of New York
• My Big Fat Greek Wedding
• Talk To Her
• Y Tu Mama Tambien

And the Oscar Goes to:

Boy, this is tough. The Writers Guild gave this award to Bowling for Columbine and that one isn't even nominated. I'm going to have to guess that Talk To Her, a beautiful film, will get this one Oscar to make up for a pointless snub in the Foreign Language category.

Who did the Academy Miss?

Spirited Away. Just because the category is not "Best Animated Feature" does not mean animated features should be shut out.

Best Screenplay based on material previously produced

• About a Boy
• Adaptation
• Chicago
• The Hours
• The Pianist

And the Oscar Goes to:

Chicago. Adaptation is by far the most original screenplay in years and The Hours snagged the Writers Guild prize but I think Chicago has all the momentum. The only possible spoiler is The Hours, which is likely to see a shut out everywhere else and may end up winning here.

Who did the academy miss?

So the adaptation for Fellowship of the Ring was good enough for a nomination but not The Two Towers? I just don't buy that....

And what about Minority Report? How about Insomnia?

Best Cinematography

• Chicago
• Far From Heaven
• Gangs of New York
• The Pianist
• Rood to Perdition

And the Oscar Goes to:

Who did the Academy miss?

If The Fellowship of the Ring was good enough to win this award, The Two Towers should have been as well.

Best Art Direction

• Chicago
• Frida
• Gangs of New York
• The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
• Road to Perdition

And the Oscar Goes to:

This is another category that Chicago will carry. Off chance that Gangs of New York could pick up it's only win of the night but I don't think that's very likely.

Who did the academy miss?

Minority Report was one of the most meticulously designed science fiction films ever made and yet it was shut out here as everywhere else.

Best Costume Design

• Chicago
• Frida
• Gangs of New York
• The Hours
• The Pianist

And the Oscar goes to:

Gotta go with Chicago.

Who did the Academy miss?

The costuming wasn't flamboyant or flashy but Far From Heaven was a great example of Costume Design.

Best Sound

• Chicago
• Gangs of New York
• The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
• Road to Perdition
• Spider-Man

And the Oscar goes to:

I think that The Two Towers has the best chance here. The battle of Helm's Deep alone should earn the award.

Who did the Academy Miss?

Dead Horse Alert! Minority Report!!!

Best Editing

• Chicago
• Gangs of New York
• The Hours
• Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
• The Pianist

And the Oscar Goes to:

With the same list as the Best Picture nominations, I think it's fair to assume a similar result. Once again, Chicago carries the day.

Who did the Academy Miss?

How about a vote for Punch-Drunk Love? I just love that movie and it should have gotten a nomination for something.

Best Sound Editing

• The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
• Minority Report
• Road to Perdition

And the Oscar goes to:

As the only category with Minority Report in the running, I should pick that one. I think I need to take the safe path and go with The Two Towers

Who did the Academy miss?

I find it odd that Spider-Man didn't get a nod here.

Best Effect - Visual Effects

• The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
• Spider-Man
• Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones

And the Oscar Goes to:

I'm not sure if George Lucas can handle getting shut out again but he's going to have to get used to disappointment because I think The Two Towers has this one.

Who did the Academy miss?

Um.....Minority Report.

Best Makeup

• Frida
• The Time Machine

And the Oscar Goes to:

As stupid a category as they come. Do you pick the unibrow or the dorky Morlocks? I'm going with the dorky Morlocks because it was more work and the absence of quality nominee, that's the best I can think up.

Who did the Academy Miss?

I am completely appalled that The Two Towers is not nominated.

Best Music - Song

• I Move On from Chicago
• Lose Yourself from 8 Mile
• Burn it Blue from Frida
• The Hands that Built America from Gangs of New York
• Father and Daughter from The Wild Thornberry's Movie

And the Oscar goes to:

Father and Daughter because Paul Simon wasn't even nominated back when he wrote all the music (with Garfunkel) for The Graduate. He's one of those aging rock stars that the Academy would like to honor to pretend they are hip. But how about the dark horse possibility that the U2 song (The Hands that Built America) and the Paul Simon song split the vote and Eminem wins for Lose Yourself? Now that would be funny.

Who did the Academy Miss?

I have no idea. original song really isn't something I pay a lot of attention to.

Best Music - Original Score

• Catch Me if you Can
• Far From Heaven
• Frida
• The Hours
• Road to Perdition

And the Oscar goes to:

I know that John Williams has a ton of Oscars already and it's hard to believe he could score one more this year but there was no better score on this list that Williams' jazzy, retro and downright fun score for Catch Me if you Can. I think he has this one locked up.

Who did the Academy Miss?

Once again, it seems that since The Fellowship of the Ring won last year, Howard Shore was not eligible this year. Whatever.

Best Short Film - Animated

• The Chubbchubbs
• Das Rad
• Katedra
• Mike's New Car
• Mt. Head

And the Oscar goes to:

Unfortunately the only one of these five that I've seen is Mike's New Car. The short is made by Pixar and they have a very solid Oscar record so I'm going to guess that they will win again. However, one of the other choices may be much better and given you have to see every nominee to vote in this category, my prediction is little better than a poorly educated guess.

Best Short film - live action

• Fait d'hiver
• J'aatendrai le suivant
• Inja (Dog) (I want to be...)
• Johnny Flynton
• Der er en yndig mand

And the Oscar goes to:

Not a clue. I mean no clue at all. Let's say Der er en yndig mand because.....because.

Best Documentary - Short

• The Collector of Bedford Streed
• Mighty Times: The Legacy of Rosa Parks
• Twin Towers
• Why Can't we be a Family Again?

And the Oscar goes to:

I don't know if the Academy will prefer something about Rosa Parks or something about the heroes of September 11th? I'm gonna guess Rosa Parks.

Best Documentary - Feature

• Bowling for Columbine
• Daughter From Danang
• Prisoner of Paradise
• Spellbound
• Le Peuple migrateur

And the Oscar goes to:

Normally one should go straight for the holocaust film in this category. That would be Prisoner of Paradise. Of course Michael Moore's outspoken liberalism has a great many friends in the Academy and he did with a Writers Guild award for Bowling for Columbine. On the other hand, Moore makes one of their own (Charleton Heston) look pretty bad. With the war in Iraq gearing up, I'm going to guess that the liberal vote swings this category to Michael Moore.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Ying Xiong (China)
• Mies Vailla Menneisyytta (Finland)
• Nirgendwo in Afrika (Germany)
• El Crimen del Padre Amaro (Mexico)
• Zus & Zo (Netherlands)

And the Oscar goes to:

I have no clue. Every great foreign language film released last year is not even in the category due to idiotic rules governing how they are considered for nomination. For the heck of it, I'm going to guess El Crimen del Padre Amaro.

Who did the Academy Miss?

Everyone. Y Tu Mama Tambien was not eligible because it was released in Mexico last year. Talk To Her was not chosen by Spain as an entry in the category. Both films have nominations in other categories but none here. Atanarjuat: The Fast Runner was filmed entirely in Inuit but it is a Canadian film and Canada does not submit films in this category. Finally, City of God, which is considered by many critics to be the finest Foreign Language film of the year, was not nominated because it's subject matter offended too many people at an Academy screening. By all accounts, this is the most pointless category of the year because every movie worthy of nomination was not given due consideration.

All right! Put your money in the Oscar pools but for goodness sake don't listen to me!

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