Oscar Picks
by Tim Wick
It's time once again for someone on the MISFITS site to pick the winners of
this year's Oscars. I'm actually going all out and put my predictions out
there BEFORE such vaunted publications as Entertainment Weekly, The Pioneer
Press and The Chicago Sun Times (at least I wrote these before those others
came out). Why do I do this? Why would I put my meager reputation on the
line (especially after I got only 37.5% of my guesses right last year)? Why
would I boldly strike out with picks when the Cinematographers and Editors
unions have not given their awards yet?
I don't know. Guess I just felt like it.
Let me repeat - my percentage was 37.5% last year. If you have money to
burn, don't bet on me!!!!!
Remember, Oscars are all about politics and advertising. Who was the best
often has no real bearing on the outcome.
Best Picture
- Chocolat
- Gladiator
- Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
- Erin Brockovich
- Traffic
And the Oscar goes to:
Gladiator. Much as I think it will be the worst film to win the Best
Picture prize since Forrest Gump (which I liked, but it was no Shawshank
Redemption or Pulp Fiction - both of which were nominated that year), all
the momentum is concentrated around this film. It won the Golden Globe, the
BAFTA (British Academy Award) and the Producers guild prize. Traffic and
Erin Brockovich cancel each other out because they were directed by the same
guy. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon will win foreign film so they won't
pick it to win this.
Who did the Academy Miss?
It wasn't a great year for film, but I think that The Contender, Cast Away
and Unbreakable were all better films than Chocolat or Gladiator. I've not
seen Almost Famous yet, but rumor has it that the Golden Globe winner for
Best Comedy might have gotten rooked by the publicity machine behind
Chocolat.
Best Director
- Stephen Daldry for Billy Elliot
- Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
- Steven Soderburg for Erin Brockovich
- Ridley Scott for Gladiator
- Steven Soderburg for Traffic
And the Oscar goes to:
Ang Lee. He just snagged the Directors guild award and already pulled in a
Golden Globe to boot. Scott could be the spoiler because he won the BAFTA
award, but he's English and the folks at BAFTA are pretty biased towards
their own. Soderburg deserves it simply on the strength of being nominated
for two films, but the awards don't work that way. He splits his own vote.
Daldry didn't get a Best Picture nod, so he gets to tell people that it was
just an honor to be nominated.
Who did the Academy Miss?
Robert Zemeckis for Cast Away and Rod Lurie for The Contender. Both Oscar
style films that were meticulously crafted. If either of these were in,
Erin Brockovich would be out and Soderburg would have the Oscar he so richly
deserves.
Best Actress in a Leading role
- Joan Allen for The Contender
- Juliette Binoche for Chocolat
- Ellen Burnstyn for Requiem for a Dream
- Laura Linney for You can Count on Me
- Julia Roberts for Erin Brockovich
And the Oscar goes to:
Julia Roberts unless someone lost all the votes on the way to be counted.
She has this award so locked up, I'm guessing the other actresses are
wondering if they should even show up on Oscar night. Reports from those
who have seen the films suggest that Burnstyn or Linney are more deserving,
but they were in little seen indie films and most academy members really
want to see Julia get all flustered when she accepts the award.
Who did the Academy Miss?
To nominate Juliette Binoche for Chocolat with the performances of Michelle
Yeoh and Ziyi Zhang In Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon so clearly superior is
something of a miscarriage of justice. Cate Blanchette was also wonderful
in The Gift. She will get other chances. I can't say the same for Yeoh and
Zhang.
Oh, one more - Rene Zellweger in Nurse Betty.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
- Javier Bardiem for Before Night Falls
- Russell Crowe for Gladiator
- Ed Harris for Pollock
- Tom Hanks for Cast Away
- Geoffrey Rush for Quills
And the Oscar goes to:
Tom Hanks, but I am as unsure about this one as I'm sure about Julia
Roberts. Harris has gotten tons of good press for Pollock at just the right
time. He's an actors actor. Crowe could be carried by Gladiator mania, but
there's that little issue with Meg Ryan that might make some of the voters
snub him. Harris is the most likely spoiler here. If anything, the Screen
Actors Guild awards muddied the water by giving the award the Benicio Del
Toro (he is nominated for an Oscar in the supporting category).
Who did the Academy Miss?
John Cusack for High Fidelity and Michael Douglas in Wonder Boys. I have
seen all five nominated performances and I'd say Rush should have been
bumped to make room for someone else. Seriously, the Academy has nominated
him in three of the last four years (Shine in 1997 and Shakespeare in Love
in 1998)!
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
- Judi Dench for Chocolat
- Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock
- Kate Hudson for Almost Famous
- Frances McDormand for Almost Famous
- Julie Walters for Billy Elliot
And the Oscar Goes to:
Kate Hudson. Mom Goldie Hawn won her Best Supporting Actress statue at 21.
Guess how old Hudson is? Hollywood loves those stories. This category
typically goes to the Grande Dame or the Ingenue. With Dench a former
winner, that eliminates the Grande Dame. Go for the Ingenue.
Who did the Academy miss?
Erika Christensen's breakthrough performance in Traffic and Connie Nielson's
career saving turn in Gladiator (at least I think she was in trouble after
making Mission to Mars).
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
- Jeff Bridges for The Contender
- Willem Dafoe for Shadow of the Vampire
- Benicio Del Toro for Traffic
- Albert Finney for Erin Brockovich
- Joaqin Phoenix for Gladiator
And the Oscar goes to:
Benicio Del Toro. The only award he hasn't won in this category was the
Screen Actors Guild award - because he was nominated for best lead actor and
won. Dafoe and Finney were both great, but they can't match the work Del
Toro did. If I had to bet on a prediction, it would be this one.
Who did the Academy miss?
Joe Black was absolutely brilliant in High Fidelity and Keanu Reeves
actually showed some acting chops in The Gift. Let's not forget Brad Pitt's
slurred masterpiece in Snatch.
Best Screenplay written Directly for the Screen
- Almost Famous
- Billy Elliot
- Erin Brockovich
- Gladiator
- You Can Count on Me
And the Oscar Goes to:
You can Count on me. It's won most of the major screenplay awards leading
up to the big golden guy. Gladiator's screenplay was nothing special and
Erin Brockovich, Billy Elliot and Almost Famous don't pose much of a threat.
Who did the Academy Miss?
Well, I'm not sure. Honestly, I never know what's original and what's
adapted until I look it up on the IMDB. Then I don't remember. The Script
for Chicken Run was awfully clever, though.
Best Screenplay based on material previously produced
- Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
- Chocolat
- O Brother Where Art Thou?
- Traffic
- Wonder Boys
And the Oscar Goes to:
Traffic. Again, the burden of prior awards suggests that Traffic gets it.
Of course, if Chocolat wins, Mirimax will have scored a screenplay hat trick
(Shakespeare in Love in 1998, Cider House Rules in 1999 and Chocolat in
2000). Crouching Tiger has a chance at this award, but not a big one.
Who did the academy miss?
I never saw the movie, but heard the screenplay for Requiem for a Dream was
terrific.
Best Cinematography
- Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
- Gladiator
- Malena
- O Brother, Where Art Thou?
- The Patriot
And the Oscar Goes to:
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Gladiator has a chance here because it's
gotten a ton of cinematography awards leading up to the Oscars but CTHD was
better. BETTER DO YOU VOTERS HEAR ME????. BETTER!!!!!!!
I'm allowed at least one emotional pick a year. This is the one. Nyahh.
Who did the Academy miss?
Traffic. The use of different film stock and filters to evoke different
moods and places was some of the best camera work this year and it's not
even nominated.
Best Art Direction
- Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
- How the Grinch Stole Christmas
- Gladiator
- Quills
- Vatel
And the Oscar Goes to:
Gladiator. I think this is where Hollywood's love affair with ancient Rome
will show up. Frankly, the design work on Gladiator was stronger than the
other films, so I find it hard to believe anyone else has a shot.
Who did the academy miss?
Chicken Run. Why does the fact it's animated change the fact that the movie
had some of the most wonderfully imaginative sets ever? The bias against
animation is completely mind boggling.
Best Costume Design
- Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
- How the Grinch Stole Christmas
- Gladiator
- 102 Dalmations
- Quills
And the Oscar goes to:
Gladiator. Again, Hollywood loves Rome. Quills had pretty elaborate
costumes and could squeak an upset here.
Who did the Academy miss?
O Brother where art Thou? I loved the dingy, dusty, ugly clothing on all
the characters in this film. Sometimes costumes should be nominated because
they fit the film and not because they took a long time to make, don't you
think? Besides, all those outfits in Gladiator are just sheets....
Best Sound
- Cast Away
- Gladiator
- The Patriot
- The Perfect Storm
- U-571
And the Oscar goes to:
This is tough. Gladiator won the Sound award from the Sound people (real
technical name, I know), but how much does the Academy pay attention to that
particular award? I can see the academy getting all goo-goo over the
crashing waves, wind and rain from Cast Away, but I'm gonna have to call
this one another win for Gladiator.
Who did the Academy Miss?
Unbreakable. Don't care what you thought of the movie, the use of sound
throughout the film was incredible.
Best Editing
- Almost Famous
- Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
- Gladiator
- Traffic
- Wonder Boys
And the Oscar Goes to:
Again, I'm going out on a limb because the Editors haven't made their pick
yet. Still, I have to think that the finely edited fight sequences in
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon should beat out the not quite so finely
edited fight sequences in Gladiator. Last year, the academy recognized
similar work in The Matrix so let's guess they'll be smart again and pick
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.
Who did the Academy Miss?
Snatch. I love the way Guy Richie edits together his films. Tight, quick
and riveting. Just my opinion.
Best Sound Editing
And the Oscar goes to:
Who cares? What a pointless category! Two mediocre movies vying for a
prize that could have gone to much better movies. Whatever, I'll call U-571
as my choice.
Who did the Academy miss?
The point! What about Chicken Run? WHAT ABOUT CHICKEN RUN???? The whole
thing is sound editing!!!!!
Best Effect - Visual Effects
- Gladiator
- Hollow Man
- The Perfect Storm
And the Oscar Goes to:
Gladiator. I think the CGI tigers beat the CGI waves and the CGI invisible
guy.
Who did the Academy miss?
X-Men is a pretty strange omission here. Didn't have any room on the list
for a bunch of mutants, did they? And what about - oh, I don't know -
CHICKEN RUN?????
Best Makeup
- The Cell
- How the Grinch Stole Christmas
- Shadow of the Vampire
And the Oscar Goes to:
How the Grinch Stole Christmas. The film deserves no accolades whatsoever,
but the makeup in this film was the most elaborate of any of the nominees.
Of course after last year's award went to Topsy-Turvy, anything could
happen....
Who did the Academy Miss?
Nobody really. About the only other film with a lot of makeup effects was
Bedazzled. These three are better than that one.
Best Music - Song
- A Love Before Time from Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
- I've Seen it All from Dancer in the Dark
- My Funny Friend and Me from The Emperor's New Groove
- A Fool in Love from Meet the Parents
- Things have Changed from Wonder Boys
And the Oscar goes to:
Things have Changed. Bob Dylan wrote this puppy and the Academy has got
to be just giddy about the prospect of handing him an Oscar.
Who did the Academy Miss?
Probably a ton of songs. I mean, have you heard any of these songs on the
radio?????
Best Music - Original Score
- Chocolat
- Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
- Gladiator
- Malena
- The Patriot
And the Oscar goes to:
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. At least it damn well better.
Who did the Academy Miss?
I didn't notice many scores this year - except in the negative sense. Not
to sound like a broken record, but I quite liked the score for CHICKEN
RUN!!!!!
Best Short Film - Animated
- Father and Daughter
- The Periwig Maker
- Rejected
And the Oscar goes to:
I don't know. It's not like they make it possible for anyone to see the
nominees. Father and Daughter has a touching title, let's guess that.
Best Short film - live action
- By Courier
- One Day Crossing
- Quiero Ser (I want to be...)
- Seraglio
- Uma Historia de Futebol
And the Oscar goes to:
Let's guess Quiero Ser. Sounds uplifting...
Best Documentary - Short
- Big Momma
- Curtain Call
- Dolphins
- The Man on Lincoln's nose
- On Tiptoe: Gentle steps to freedom
And the Oscar goes to:
Dolphins are cute. Everybody loves them. Let's give it to the Dolphins.
Best Documentary - Feature
- Into the Arms of Strangers: Stories of the Kindertransport
- Legacy
- Long Nights Journey into Day
- Scottsboro: An American Tragedy
- Sound and Fury
And the Oscar goes to:
Into the Arms of Strangers. Trust me on this one. The Oscar will always go
to a holocaust film if there is one. Guess which of these five is a
holocaust film????
Best Foreign Language Film
- Amores Perros (Mexico)
- Wo Hu Zang Long (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon - Taiwan)
- Musime si pomahat (Czech Republic)
- Ledereen Beroemd (Belgim)
- Gout des autres, Le (France)
And the Oscar goes to:
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Duh.
Whew! That's the list! Let's see if I can beat last years dismal results.
Enjoy the Oscars!!!!
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