What can we learn from the Golden Globes?
by Tim Wick
The Golden Globes are typically overlooked by a lot of movie fans simply
because we are all really waiting for the Oscar nominations to come out.
Nothing gives us more joy than seeing a film we really love be nominated,
complaining about a piece of (we think) crap getting chosen for best picture
and eagerly looking through the paper to figure out how quickly we can get
to all the nominated films we missed. The Golden Globes, however, are the
first indicator of which way the wind might be blowing.
Last year, for instance, American Beauty was a big winner at the Golden
Globes. The Oscars dutifully followed suit. The year before, Saving
Private Ryan took best dramatic picture and Shakespeare in Love was the
best comedy. As a result, the film most people did not think had much of a
chance (Shakespeare in Love) pulled off a best picture upset while Saving
Private Ryan garnered the Best Director Award.
On the other hand, Jim Carrey has taken best actor in a comedy two years
running and still has not seen an Oscar nomination for his efforts. Tom
Cruise took home the best supporting Actor Globe last year and watched
Michael Caine give one of the finest acceptance speeches in the history of
awards at the Oscars.
Further complicating things are the fact that Picture, Actor and Actress
have comedy and drama categories for the Golden Globes (something I wish the
Oscars would adopt). That gives you a few extra options.
The Golden Globes, therefore, are a good thermometer even if they are not a
tried and true predictor. Sick of the weatherman metaphors yet?
So what is the temperature looking like this year?
It looks like director Stephen Soderburg is hot, but his luck is likely to
be cold. By that I mean that Soderburg made the nearly unimaginable error
of releasing two exceptionally strong Oscar contenders in a single calendar
year. Both Erin Brokovich and Traffic were nominated in the Best
Dramatic Picture and the Best Director category at the Golden Globes. As a
result, Soderburg split his own vote and Gladiator took home best picture
while Ang Lee captured Best Director for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.
I'm unsure how Oscar rules work, but you can bet that if Soderburg has the
misfortune of being nominated for an Oscar twice, he will fail to win for
either picture. This is a true shame because any director who manages to be
nominated twice really deserves the award by default. Oscar might allow for
some sort of dual award in the director category, which would certainly make
Soderburgs combined vote total enough to pull out a win. Somehow, I don't
think that's how it works.
So with Soderburg's Traffic out of the running because of the mis-timed
success of Erin Brokovich, the playing field becomes far more
complicated. Oscar will probably nominate both Gladiator and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon along with Soderburg's films and the question becomes
which of the two will pull enough votes to win. Almost Famous won the
Best Comedy Globe and will probably take the fifth nomination slot, but will
not have enough support to win.
The Golden Globe win would suggest Gladiator has a chance, but then you
have the fact that Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon pulled off the Director win.
Which means the Best Picture and Best Director Oscars are up for grabs.
Best supporting actor is probably not. Benicio Del Toro has taken almost
every critics award for his role in Traffic and he picked up the Globe as
well. I'd say that he needs to clear some space in his awards cabinet
because Oscar is probably setting it's sights on him.
Best actor and actress are also pretty good bets. Tom Hanks has a pretty
good chance for his third statue given the comparative lack of strong
competition. Cast Away is pretty much all about Hanks and no other actor
has emerged as a critical favorite. He grabbed the Globe so that should
about do it. George Clooney, however, is guaranteed an Oscar snub given his
win for O Brother Where Art Thou? in the comedy category. Oscar voters
just don't seem too impressed by a comedy win at the Globes.
On the best actress side, Julia Roberts is likely to be picking out a gown
she wants to accept the Oscar in. Even those of us who aren't Julia Roberts
fans were impressed with her work in Erin Brokovich. The Golden Globe is
just a harbinger of an Oscar. Renee Zellweger has a shot after her comedy
win for Nurse Betty at the Globes, but I think it's a long shot. The
Academy is big on "turns" and they probably figure it's Julia's "turn". Of
course I thought that about Annette Benning last year and Hillary Swank
proved me wrong.
With Traffic pulling in a Globe for Best Screenplay, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
taking best foreign film and Gladiator taking best score, the chances of
any film routing the Oscars seems slim.
Of course, there are always variables to consider. Now that the Globes are
over, the Oscar publicity campaigns will begin in earnest. It is possible
that a favorite will get pushed aside because of poor publicity (as Denzel
Washington did last year when it was revealed that a good deal of The
Hurricane was not terribly accurate). It is also possible that the dreaded
Miramax publicity machine will manage to create a favorite out of thin air
(as they did with the worthy Shakespeare in Love and the unworthy Cider
House Rules). Despite lackluster reviews, Chocolat has an outside chance
at a nomination because it has the Miramax machine behind it (it pulled off
a comedy nomination at the Golden Globes).
For my part, I think it would be a shame if Gladiator pulled in best
picture by default. The film is not worthy of such a lofty award. I think
that Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon is barely superior to Traffic but both films would
be worthy recipients of the Best Picture mantle. Del Toro should get
supporting actor and Hanks has no real competition for lead actor. Of the
lead contenders for Actress, I've only seen Roberts and Zellweger. Between
the two, I pick Zellweger, but I think she could easily get bumped out of a
nomination because she had her standout role in a comedy. Add the fact that
no-one has seemed to notice Cate Blanchette's fine performance in The Gift
and it looks like Julia is a shoe-in. Soderburg should take director, but
will probably split his own vote. Supporting Actress is a toss up since
I've not seen any of the peformances that have been discussed as front
runners. It's clear I have a lot of movie watching to do once the
nominations come out.
If you are sick of politics in Washington, try the politics in Hollywood.
Frankly, they are a lot more fun to watch.
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